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Author: Subject: Cato/Koch Institute: It's Not Obama's Fault That Crude Oil Prices Have Increased

Zen Peach





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  posted on 3/6/2012 at 12:58 PM
quote:
It's Not Obama's Fault That Crude Oil Prices Have Increased

by Peter Van Doren and Jerry Taylor

Is President Obama responsible for spiraling price of gasoline? Republicans say yes, but the facts say no.

Why have gasoline prices increased since the start of the year? The simplest explanation is that the price of crude oil has increased. Specifically, the spot price for Brent (North Sea) crude has increased $16 a barrel since January. Given that there are 42 gallons to a barrel, that works out to a 38 cent increase in the price of a gallon of oil. Spot prices for gasoline trade in New York have increased about 41 cents per gallon over the same time frame. So there you go.

Why is the price of North Sea oil relevant to the price of gasoline in the United States? Well, we import gasoline refined in Europe from North Sea crude. Even though these imports constitute less than 10 percent of U.S. gasoline consumption, they are necessary to satisfy domestic demand and their price sets the market price for all gasoline regardless of whether other cheaper crude sources are used to refine most of our gasoline.

Why is the price of North Sea crude rising? One possibility is that supply is down. North Sea (British) production has been decreasing for some time. During the first quarter of 2007, it was 1.7 million barrels a day, or mbd. By the end of 2011, it was down to 1.1 mbd. Norwegian crude oil production has likewise decreased from 2.7 mbd in the first quarter of 2007 to 2.1 mbd at the end of 2011. And global demand is bidding up the price of crude oil from the North Sea and elsewhere.

Ironically, during the same time period, U.S. crude oil production has marched upward for the first time since 1971. Since the start of 2007, U.S. production has increased by 2.1 mbd. Sure, more domestic oil creates the possibility of fewer refined imports tied to the price of Brent crude, but given that the price of Brent sets the price for crude generally, the result would be more profit for domestic crude producers rather than significantly lower gasoline prices for Americans (not that there's anything wrong with that).

So despite the popular perception of President Obama as anti-oil, domestic oil production is increasing for the first time since the Johnson administration. Alas, little of this has to do with the president. Prices increased from $22 in 2002 to just under $100 a barrel average in 2008 and supply has responded. President Obama is no more responsible for production increases than other presidents were responsible for production declines. Unfortunately, presidents get blamed for world market changes that occur during their time in office... but generally, they do not cause them.

http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/its-not-obamas-fault-crude-oil- prices-have-increased




I wouldn't have expected Cato to publish that!

 

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Maximum Peach



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  posted on 3/6/2012 at 09:12 PM
To say or think that a President can have de facto control over oil and refined products pricing is just foolish. But to say that policies an administration favors or disapproves can't influence those prices is equally foolish.

The article simply points to the classic supply and demand equation. Could we alter that with any combination of more drilling permits, use of alternative fuels, and energy plan, etc? As the world's biggest user, we sure could.

T. boone had some recent comments along these lines....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X51Z9TMBcfI


And it's great to see recent news of GM and Chrysler with plans for natural gas trucks...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203986604577257770238882852.h tml


It's a start, but much more is needed

 

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  posted on 3/6/2012 at 11:01 PM
quote:
It's Not Obama's Fault That Crude Oil Prices Have Increased

by Peter Van Doren and Jerry Taylor

Is President Obama responsible for spiraling price of gasoline? Republicans say yes, but the facts say no.



That is the message I've been trying to get across the last week or more. Since there will be an election for POTUS in about 8 months and gas prices are rising the republicans and assorted right wing pundits are twisting it so that people will think the current administration is to blame for high gas prices.

 

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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 11:08 AM
Sadly a huge percentage on the right are unfazed by facts and this will not sink in with them at all. As much as I despised Bush 2 and as much as I wanted to, the one thing I never did was blame him for the increase in gas prices. There are just too many other world market variables at work here to pin the blame on any president.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 11:11 AM
Nobody blamed Bush for high gas prices.
 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 11:18 AM
quote:
Nobody blamed Bush for high gas prices.


None of the people who you have discussed this with here recently did. Look it up. It's all there. I pulled up examples and you ignored them.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 11:21 AM
quote:
quote:
Nobody blamed Bush for high gas prices.


None of the people who you have discussed this with here recently did. Look it up. It's all there. I pulled up examples and you ignored them.


Like I said, nobody.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 11:24 AM
quote:
quote:
quote:
Nobody blamed Bush for high gas prices.


None of the people who you have discussed this with here recently did. Look it up. It's all there. I pulled up examples and you ignored them.


Like I said, nobody.


Some people did, I vividly remember it. So what? Some people blame aliens for the New Coke disaster.

What about you? You posted some very insightful things in 2008 when we were discussing high gas prices then and you didn't blame Bush either, without caveat as I recall. Now there is one. Why is that?

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 11:27 AM
quote:
What about you? You posted some very insightful things in 2008 when we were discussing high gas prices then and you didn't blame Bush either, without caveat as I recall. Now there is one. Why is that?


I don't understand what you mean.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 11:30 AM
quote:
quote:
What about you? You posted some very insightful things in 2008 when we were discussing high gas prices then and you didn't blame Bush either, without caveat as I recall. Now there is one. Why is that?


I don't understand what you mean.


In 2008, the sentiment was "Bush can't control gas prices. The end."

In 2012, the sentiment is "Obama may not control gas prices directly, but he can still do something about it."

I guess since you brought Bush up, the question is, should Bush have done something about it?

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 11:37 AM
quote:
quote:
quote:
What about you? You posted some very insightful things in 2008 when we were discussing high gas prices then and you didn't blame Bush either, without caveat as I recall. Now there is one. Why is that?


I don't understand what you mean.


In 2008, the sentiment was "Bush can't control gas prices. The end."

In 2012, the sentiment is "Obama may not control gas prices directly, but he can still do something about it."

I guess since you brought Bush up, the question is, should Bush have done something about it?




Remember the day he lifted the offshore drilling moratorium on certain areas that
had been placed off limits? I'd have to look back at the exact numbers, but the
price of oil dropped the very next day more than it had in 16 years.

It didn't take much, but the speculators were listening. Worked better than a
speech on algae.

 

Ultimate Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 11:40 AM

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 12:11 PM
quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:
What about you? You posted some very insightful things in 2008 when we were discussing high gas prices then and you didn't blame Bush either, without caveat as I recall. Now there is one. Why is that?


I don't understand what you mean.


In 2008, the sentiment was "Bush can't control gas prices. The end."

In 2012, the sentiment is "Obama may not control gas prices directly, but he can still do something about it."

I guess since you brought Bush up, the question is, should Bush have done something about it?




Remember the day he lifted the offshore drilling moratorium on certain areas that
had been placed off limits? I'd have to look back at the exact numbers, but the
price of oil dropped the very next day more than it had in 16 years.

It didn't take much, but the speculators were listening. Worked better than a
speech on algae.


If you say so. Mold it however else you want. I'm confident if Obama did anything you would accuse him of tampering with the free market.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 12:11 PM
quote:




Interesting chart. Not accurate when cross referenced with other charts.

 

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Maximum Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 12:36 PM
quote:
Some people blame aliens for the New Coke disaster.


Fcking aliens.

Commodities are going through the roof because of the Fed mostly. The liability side of the balance sheet is fcked. They had two choices, one of which was to go to the Great Depression, and the other was to target something like the late 70s in terms of inflation. They chose the latter. They have to inflate the asset side of the balance sheet because the liability side is unrepairable. That is why we are seeing commodities, including oil, go through the roof, and things like the stock market going up up and away. Of course, the geopolitical crap doesn't help either. Yeah, things are cured for a while when the Fed pursues an inflationary policy, but it makes for good bubble economies. We will just have another bursting of the bubble soon, IMO.

And in an election year, those trying to gain office will point the finger at the President, and the President will say specualtors on Wall Street are driving up prices. They are all full of sht on that particular front.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 12:52 PM
quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:
What about you? You posted some very insightful things in 2008 when we were discussing high gas prices then and you didn't blame Bush either, without caveat as I recall. Now there is one. Why is that?


I don't understand what you mean.


In 2008, the sentiment was "Bush can't control gas prices. The end."

In 2012, the sentiment is "Obama may not control gas prices directly, but he can still do something about it."

I guess since you brought Bush up, the question is, should Bush have done something about it?




Remember the day he lifted the offshore drilling moratorium on certain areas that
had been placed off limits? I'd have to look back at the exact numbers, but the
price of oil dropped the very next day more than it had in 16 years.

It didn't take much, but the speculators were listening. Worked better than a
speech on algae.


If you say so. Mold it however else you want. I'm confident if Obama did anything you would accuse him of tampering with the free market.


How is permitting more oil drilling tampering with the free market? It's the exact opposite. Stopping it is tampering.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 02:48 PM
Here is a flashback to 2008. FOX News the supposed fair and balanced take on high gasoline prices and what a US President can do about it. Wonder why they don't have the same take on this topic now considering they are supposed to be fair and balanced??? Could it be because it is an election year so double standards are in need???

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzEnKdBAb_o

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 03:07 PM
quote:
Nobody blamed Bush for high gas prices.


But you sure will blame Obama.

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 03:10 PM
quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:
What about you? You posted some very insightful things in 2008 when we were discussing high gas prices then and you didn't blame Bush either, without caveat as I recall. Now there is one. Why is that?


I don't understand what you mean.


In 2008, the sentiment was "Bush can't control gas prices. The end."

In 2012, the sentiment is "Obama may not control gas prices directly, but he can still do something about it."

I guess since you brought Bush up, the question is, should Bush have done something about it?




Remember the day he lifted the offshore drilling moratorium on certain areas that
had been placed off limits? I'd have to look back at the exact numbers, but the
price of oil dropped the very next day more than it had in 16 years.

It didn't take much, but the speculators were listening. Worked better than a
speech on algae.


If you say so. Mold it however else you want. I'm confident if Obama did anything you would accuse him of tampering with the free market.


How is permitting more oil drilling tampering with the free market? It's the exact opposite. Stopping it is tampering.


So when OPEC decides to decrease production to boost prices, that's "tampering?"

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 03:36 PM
quote:
quote:
Nobody blamed Bush for high gas prices.


But you sure will blame Obama.


His anti-drilling speeches are doing so much to ease upward pressure on prices!

 

Maximum Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 04:10 PM
quote:
Here is a flashback to 2008. FOX News the supposed fair and balanced take on high gasoline prices and what a US President can do about it. Wonder why they don't have the same take on this topic now considering they are supposed to be fair and balanced??? Could it be because it is an election year so double standards are in need???

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzEnKdBAb_o
One problem with this type of rearview analysis: stuff changes.

To say there has been no change in the last four years in the outlook of what's beneath our feet here on the North American continent would be disingenuous at a minimum. We now know for sure that there are 100's of years of natural gas available to us, and that there is far more oil reserves than were previously believed to be.

The question is whether political leadership will champion these discoveries, and encourage associated developments. At least some of the evidence seems to say no of the present administration. We have the President still talking about and wanting to spend far more billions we don't have on green fantasies that are vastly more expensive on a "per energy unit" basis than conventional fuels. Wind and solar certainly have their place, but must be backed up with traditional sources because they are unreliable, thus doubling costs. Bio-sources require vast land and water resources that also carry limits, not to mention impacting food production.

I know the next response from the green adherents: "fossil fuels get vast subsidies too". True, but every single person in the country benefits. Plus, on a "per energy unit produced" basis, the subsidies for fossil fuels have to be orders of magnitude less than for the so-called "green alternatives".

I said it earlier in the thread; I don't believe a President has control over oil and refined products prices. But which policies find favor or not can certainly have influence upon those prices.

[Edited on 3/7/2012 by Fujirich]

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 04:17 PM
quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:
What about you? You posted some very insightful things in 2008 when we were discussing high gas prices then and you didn't blame Bush either, without caveat as I recall. Now there is one. Why is that?


I don't understand what you mean.


In 2008, the sentiment was "Bush can't control gas prices. The end."

In 2012, the sentiment is "Obama may not control gas prices directly, but he can still do something about it."

I guess since you brought Bush up, the question is, should Bush have done something about it?




Remember the day he lifted the offshore drilling moratorium on certain areas that
had been placed off limits? I'd have to look back at the exact numbers, but the
price of oil dropped the very next day more than it had in 16 years.

It didn't take much, but the speculators were listening. Worked better than a
speech on algae.



Oil went from $144 down to $30 or something like that in 6-months. It had absolutely nothing to do with Bush lifting the drilling moratorium. Stop confusing people with your myths.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 04:38 PM
quote:
Here is a flashback to 2008.


Here's another one. Nobody criticizing Bush for high gas prices...

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/02/video-flashback-obama-and-dems-blas t-bush-for-gas-prices-in-2008/

 

True Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 04:40 PM
quote:
quote:
Here is a flashback to 2008. FOX News the supposed fair and balanced take on high gasoline prices and what a US President can do about it. Wonder why they don't have the same take on this topic now considering they are supposed to be fair and balanced??? Could it be because it is an election year so double standards are in need???

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzEnKdBAb_o
One problem with this type of rearview analysis: stuff changes.

To say there has been no change in the last four years in the outlook of what's beneath our feet here on the North American continent would be disingenuous at a minimum. We now know for sure that there are 100's of years of natural gas available to us, and that there is far more oil reserves than were previously believed to be.

The question is whether political leadership will champion these discoveries, and encourage associated developments. At least some of the evidence seems to say no of the present administration. We have the President still talking about and wanting to spend far more billions we don't have on green fantasies that are vastly more expensive on a "per energy unit" basis than conventional fuels. Wind and solar certainly have their place, but must be backed up with traditional sources because they are unreliable, thus doubling costs. Bio-sources require vast land and water resources that also carry limits, not to mention impacting food production.

I know the next response from the green adherents: "fossil fuels get vast subsidies too". True, but every single person in the country benefits. Plus, on a "per energy unit produced" basis, the subsidies for fossil fuels have to be orders of magnitude less than for the so-called "green alternatives".

I said it earlier in the thread; I don't believe a President has control over oil and refined products prices. But which policies find favor or not can certainly have influence upon those prices.

[Edited on 3/7/2012 by Fujirich]



There are more oil rigs up and drilling right now than there have been in almost a decade. Also in every speech Obama has given on this topic he doesn't oppose drilling for oil or natural gas. He says we need an all of the above approach with oil, natural gas, wind, nuclear, green energy all on the table.

As far as the natural gas thing goes they just need to find a way to extract the gas without causing damage to the environment and people's drinking water which is what the fracking they use to extract it causes now.

Same thing with the deep off shore drilling goes. After the whole BP thing that industry needs to prove that any future accidents can be handled and fixed much faster than the BP spill was. If they drill even deeper who knows if they even can contain and fix another accident???

With things like the Keystone pipeline all Obama has asked for is independent environmental studies which I see absolutely nothing wrong with. If Keystone and the right really wanted that project to move forward they should have had independent studies done in the first place. Why are they afraid of independent environmental studies???

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 3/7/2012 at 08:39 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mobileweb/2012/03/07/mike-lee-gas-prices_n_13 27224.html

Mike Lee, Utah Senator, Warns President Obama's Reelection Means $6.60 Gas While Experts Scoff

WASHINGTON -- Republicans hit the accelerator on Wednesday with their charges that President Barack Obama is to blame for high gas prices, with one senator making the extreme claim that the president's reelection will push costs to $6.60 a gallon.
“When President Obama took office, gas prices were about $1.85 per gallon," said Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah). "Now that they're up to about $3.75 per gallon, we can see a steady increase. Over this 38-month period of time of his presidency so far, gasoline prices have risen on ... average of about 5 cents per gallon per month."
"This is staggering when you think about the fact that if he's reelected," Lee said, "it's a total of an additional 58 months. With that increase, gas prices will be up at around $6.60 per gallon."
Experts have said that $5-a-gallon gas is an apocalyptic price level that is extremely unlikely to be seen.
They are even less impressed with Lee's estimate.
"It's a shameless, irresponsible statement," said Fadel Gheit, an oil and gas analyst at Oppenheimer and Co. "I've been in the oil business 30 years, and I've never heard his name since he became an oil expert."
Gheit explained that about 75 percent of the price of gasoline comes from the price of oil, and the price of oil is skyrocketing because of speculation and fears about the possibility of war spreading in the Middle East.
About the only way that prices could spike as high as Lee has estimated would be if the United States attacked Iran soon.
"All this war talk is putting a 30 percent higher price on oil," Gheit said. "One third of the oil price right now is totally unjustified. The more war talk, the more we're going to pay at the pump."
"Everyone is saying bomb bomb bomb Iran. Let's do that if you're prepared to pay $6 a gallon," Gheit added. "Bombing Iran will give us $6 next summer. We don't have to wait for the election. We can do it sooner."
While Lee's prediction was the most dramatic comment, he is just the latest Republican to blame Obama for high gas prices, saying that they're the result of the United States not producing enough oil on public lands.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) made the same argument on the Senate floor just minutes before Lee, adding the extra dig that Obama wants gas prices high, in spite of the president's assurance on Tuesday that no commander in chief wants high gas prices in an election year.
"When it comes to the rising cost of gas at the pump, it’s my view that the administration’s policies are actually designed to bring about higher gas prices," McConnell declared, asserting that the "burdensome" regulations restrictions on drilling and the recent rejection of the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada are to blame for high prices.
McConnell did not mention global unrest or speculation, as did oil analyst Gheit.
"If we stopped speculation, tomorrow we would pay 50 cents a gallon less at the pump," Gheit said, adding that if the uncertainty over Iran were removed, the price of oil would be around $80, with correspondingly lower gasoline prices.
Drilling more would do nothing, however.
"We've been increasing our oil production for five years," Gheit said. "The industry has been doing a very good job," he added, agreeing with McConnell that the president should not claim credit for increased supplies.
Still, extracting even more would not affect price at the pump "one iota," Gheit said, explaining that oil is traded on an international market and that even if war fears and speculation were not issues, OPEC still can change price.
"The easiest thing for OPEC is to reduce production," Gheit said. "They would rather cut production by 5 percent than lose 20 percent of the price."
He also pointed to another factor affecting price that McConnell and Lee ignored -- a cut in gasoline refining capacity by oil companies.
"We shut down three refineries in the last three months -- 710,000 barrels a day are gone, evaporated," he said, by way of explaining why gas prices have risen even as demand has fallen.
Gheit's opinions are hardly unique. At a recent hearing of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, on which Lee serves, James Burkhard, the director of the Global Oil Group at IHS CERA, decribed how the U.S. oil production has seen a "great revival" since 2008, with oil production higher in 2011 by some 1.4 million barrels a day.
Numerous media reports, including those by WSLS after and Washington Post have debunked claims that prices can be lowered by getting more crude from the United States.
And other experts have told The Huffington Post in the past that if nearly all restrictions were relaxed on U.S. drilling, it might have a modest impact on prices in about five years because the United States does not have a large enough supply to quickly affect prices of the commodity.

 

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