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Author: Subject: From Drudge 10/16

Zen Peach





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  posted on 10/16/2008 at 04:41 PM
GALLUP's 'traditional' likely voter model shows Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain on Thursday, 49% to 47%, this is within poll's margin of error... Developing

 

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Maximum Peach



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  posted on 10/16/2008 at 04:48 PM
Like her or not, a good column on "polls" and some historical references:

http://www.anncoulter.com/

[Edited on 10/16/2008 by heineken515]

 

Maximum Peach



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  posted on 10/16/2008 at 04:49 PM
It also shows that there is a good amount of undecided votes who, if they vote, can actually decide the election....

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 10/16/2008 at 05:17 PM
What the undecideds don't do in the voting booth, the GOP will find a way to steal.

 

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Maximum Peach



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  posted on 10/16/2008 at 05:20 PM
ACORN MOTTO: There will be no undecided's/no shows on our watch.
 

Extreme Peach



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  posted on 10/16/2008 at 05:42 PM
Gallup is using two different models. The traditional model shows a 2 point spread and it factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voter intentions. The expanded model uses only current voter intentions and this reflects the upsurge in voter registrations in the Hispanic community, the African American community and among younger new voters. None of these groups are included in the traditional model. No need to get too excited. The spread here is 49 to 43 for Obama.

quote:
Gallup is presenting two likely voter estimates to see how preferences might vary under different turnout scenarios. The "expanded" model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities. That model has generally produced results that closely match the registered voter figures, but with a lower undecided percentage, and show Obama up by six percentage points today, 51% to 45%.

The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's margin of error. -- Frank Newport

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111211/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx




Zogby which some regard as the most reliable poll also has Obama gaining ground, 49 to 43.5

http://www.zogby.com/

[Edited on 10/16/2008 by Swifty]

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 10/16/2008 at 10:03 PM
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

30 years of statistical data, real time monitoring of polls as well as thousands of "elections" run every day to determine the varibles and outcomes.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 10/17/2008 at 12:29 AM
quote:
GALLUP's 'traditional' likely voter model shows Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain on Thursday, 49% to 47%, this is within poll's margin of error... Developing


Still can't believe this thing has been so close. You would think Obama would be up by at least 20 points.

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 10/17/2008 at 01:51 AM
I predict mccain the winner for 3 reasons: ignorance, racial intolerence, voter fraud.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 10/17/2008 at 04:26 AM
All these polls are focusing on the popular election, which historically has very often remained fairly close. If you start looking at electoral votes, which is what really matters, Obama has a significant lead and is making huge inroads into Republican territory. McCain is having to spend time and money defending what have been Republican states, while Obama is able to use his resources to put some of those states in play. This may not be that close.

 

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Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 10/17/2008 at 04:53 AM
I don't see too many people on here reference the electoral votes which is really all that matters. CNN, MSNBC,CBS,ABC NBC all have Obama ahead there by close to 100 votes. For instance the RNC has stopped running adds in Wis which at one time was considered a swing state but now Obama is 17 points up.

[Edited on 10/17/2008 by Peachypetewi]

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 10/17/2008 at 11:44 AM
quote:
I predict mccain the winner for 3 reasons: ignorance, racial intolerence, voter fraud.



From some of the crap swilrling around in cyberspace a few of my 'right wing' friends have been sending me, I sadly think you might be right.

 

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Extreme Peach



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  posted on 10/17/2008 at 11:54 AM
quote:

I predict mccain the winner for 3 reasons: ignorance, racial intolerence, voter fraud.

From some of the crap swilrling around in cyberspace a few of my 'right wing' friends have been sending me, I sadly think you might be right.
___________________________________________________________________________ ___________

No way McCain wins, I mean I am voting for him and I know he will not win. Obama has it locked up, just look at the predicted electoral votes, look at the polls, watch the last debate again, he shot himself in the foot with his facial expressions on the split screen, with his constant interruptions, with his mindless babbling at times, no way he came out a winner.

He is kinda like the Chicago Cubs this year, great until it really mattered, the playoffs, and then they lost.

[Edited on 10/17/2008 by Wayne]

 

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Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 10/17/2008 at 11:58 AM
quote:
quote:
I predict mccain the winner for 3 reasons: ignorance, racial intolerence, voter fraud.



From some of the crap swilrling around in cyberspace a few of my 'right wing' friends have been sending me, I sadly think you might be right.


For ignorance, intolerance and advocation of winning at any cost I would suggest one visit democraticunderground.com whilst you're swirling around in cyberspace.

 

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As a patriot and a loyal member of the opposition I pledge to offer our new President the very same benefit of the doubt and unwavering support that the left offered George Bush over the last eight years.

 
 


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